Decoding Dengue: A Comprehensive Analysis of Cases at Holy Family Hospital (2019–2023) and Anticipating Pakistan's Future Dengue Dynamics under Climate Change

  • Saira Karimi Department of Pathology, Rawalpindi Medical University, Rawalpindi
  • Naeem Akhtar Department of Pathology, Rawalpindi Medical University, Rawalpindi
  • Olodo Katiana Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar (UCAD), Senegal
  • Sajjad Haider Flood Forecasting Division, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Lahore
  • Burhan Ahmed Director, Infection Disease Unit, Holy Family Hospital, Rawalpindi
  • Mujeeb Khan Department of Pathology, Rawalpindi Medical University, Rawalpindi
  • Muhammad Umer Rawalpindi Medical University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan

Abstract

Objective: Climate warming and infectious diseases are a growing concern in Pakistan's recent climate change scenario. This retrospective study considers a three-year ( 2019-2023) comprehensive analysis of dengue virus cases reported at Holy Family Hospital.

Methodology: Patient demographic features, age, location, gender, lab profiles such as Dengue Fever (DF), Dengue Shock Syndrome (DSS), and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF), were collected and analyzed to understand the prevalence and hotspots of dengue virus.

Results: The study revealed that DF was more frequent among individuals above 50, emphasizing the age-dependent nature of dengue vulnerability. Furthermore, our findings highlighted a gender-based vulnerability, indicating that males were more prone to DF. Based on these findings, we predicted the impact of climate change (Temperature & Rainfall) on dengue transmission suitable days (DTSD).The proposed predictive model incorporates the baseline (2019-2023) and future (2025–2035, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099) periods under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. CMIP5 models, downscaled and bias-corrected with the quantile delta mapping technique, were employed to project the potential spatiotemporal shifts and DSTD due to climate change.

Conclusion: Drawing from the insights gained in the retrospective study, our predictive analysis contributes to proactive public health measures by anticipating and preparing for the evolving dynamics of dengue in the context of a changing climate.

Keywords: Dengue, Climate, Pakistan

Published
2024-07-20
Section
Original Articles